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M94A2305.TXT
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1994-10-25
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Document 2305
DOCN M94A2305
TI Dilemma between prevention of epidemic of AIDS and fall in population by
condom use.
DT 9412
AU Sasaki N; Naito M; Kambara T; Nippon Dental Univ., Tokyo, Japan.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):334 (abstract no. PC0270). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370270
AB OBJECTIVE: Condom can prevent the epidemic of AIDS, however, if making
errors in directions, this accelerates the fall in population. Can we
solve this condom dilemma? Namely, by using condom suitably, can we
obtain the situation in which epidemic of AIDS is prevented and also
population is rised? We show this is possible in sub-SAHARAN Africa.
MODEL: Population is devided in several types according to difference in
sex, age, sexual activity and so on. Further, population of each type is
devided in three groups: noninfected and infected with HIV, patient of
AIDS. Transmission probability of HIV is varied according to sexual
activity and existence of STD. By solving the simultaneous differential
equations, we can predict the demographic impact of AIDS. RESULTS: By
using condom suitably, it is possible that the epidemic of AIDS is
prevented drastically and the population increases gradually in
sub-SAHARAN Africa. The optimum direction of condom use is obtained.
DISCUSSIONS: Our mathematical model can predict the demographic impact
of AIDS and the effect of condom in every countries.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*PREVENTION &
CONTROL/TRANSMISSION Africa South of the Sahara/EPIDEMIOLOGY *Condoms
Disease Outbreaks/*PREVENTION & CONTROL Human Models, Statistical
*Population Control MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).